If they want to fight, let's talk war

Why the Reds will win

Lot’s of people are buzzing about the prospects of a second civil war, but let’s spend a few moments actually talking logistics (which is all REAL military professionals talk about). Granted, I’m no expert, but some things are obvious.

What do the Blues need to fight?

First, they need water. Then food and energy. They have none of that - everything they need comes to them via long supply lines running through RED areas. Oops! Think how many troops would be needed to secure NYC’s water alone! Try powering San Fran without massive numbers of troops to guard all those power plants and supply lines running from Red America to Blue Stanlingrad. Think renewables are unreliable now, you ain’t seen nothing yet. The fact that Red America provides all of Blue America’s necessities highlights another problem: Blue America won’t be able to rely upon its usual strategy of destroying the enemy’s ability to wage war because it would be destroying its own supply lines. Oops!

Second, they need soldiers. Well, good luck with that! The Bluest of the Blue are the elderly and educated women, not exactly prime soldiering material. Granted, the young are Blue, but Blue Young tell pollsters they won’t fight for their country & Blue Young are defined by their irrational fear of cooties. Again, sound like they’re up for a little urban warfare? I think not.

Now you’ll tell me that they already have soldiers. Uh, sure - but are they going to abandon Asia and Europe to send those soldiers to kill Americans? I think not. Plus, America has a dirty little secret: we rely on our National Guard for logistics, so we NEED them for any big military operation. See the problem? You ain’t gonna have many of your key logistics people.

Oh, and who is going to drive your trucks and fly your planes? Again, not really a Blue people kind of job. You can compel people to do it, or you can bribe them, but the former is difficult & unreliable while the latter is expensive.

Which leads me to the $ problem. Blue wealth is intangible wealth, which is easily & quickly destroyed. What do you think the stock market does when a shooting war breaks out? How about interest rates? If interest rates went to 5%, it would cost the government $1T a year just to pay interest on its existing debt!

So, let’s review, shall we? Your expenditures would skyrocket; your revenues would fall; your borrowing costs would skyrocket, causing your deficits to rise further and so on in a vicious cycle. Meanwhile, you’re blowing up your economy and killing or mutilating your workers, so your ability to repay those debts is diminishing by the moment.

And now we have to talk about the big bucks: bailing out the banks. How does Chase survive when half the country isn’t paying its credit cards or mortgages (because they can’t afford it or can’t send money to Blue areas)? So you’re bailing the banks out, further accelerating your impending bankruptcy.

See the problem?

And we haven’t even discussed your immediate personnel issues. How many American troops are willing to kill other Americans? I’m guessing huge numbers of your soldiers will walk off the job. Look how many left over vaccine mandates! I’m guessing the killing Americans mandate will prove even less popular.

But suppose they stay. Who is going to motivate them? Your current losers in the Pentagon who haven’t won a military engagement in who knows how long and who think their job is combating climate change and/or homophobia? Honestly, you tell me Gen. Milley’s in charge & I’ve got enough to bet on the other side. Besides, you think Uvalde was bad? Wait til you see how eager our troops are to rush into combat against ARMED AMERICANS! All those ex-soldiers with their “weapons of war” won’t be something that anybody is eager to combat on their home turf, so I’m not accusing anybody of anything when I point out that nobody’s going to do that job if they don’t have to do that job. You’ll need utterly overwhelming force, which further compounds your money & logistics problem. (When you’re massing hundreds of troops to do one raid, who’s guarding everything else?)

Folks, the logistics here are daunting. You need one huge military force to guard what you have & your supply lines. You need another to guard whatever you take from the enemy. You need a third to attack the enemy’s territory. Since it’s YOUR country, you’re basically paying for all of it. (I mean you might not give pensions to those who fought on the other side, but you’re still paying for their disabled, so it’s basically all on your dime.) You’re doing this while you’re already broke & fighting inflation. (You think Putin caused inflation? Wait until you see what intentionally destroying your own infrastructure will do to inflation!)

The Reds can’t win. Basically, they’re the South. That is, their wealth is highly vulnerable to destruction & they lack any of the industrial resources required for war. They think they “control” the military &, to some extent they do, but how did that work out for the South? Their officers went home and caused great trouble for the North, but who won the war? (Even if we assume America’s officers are a plus rather than a minus, it’s a small factor in war.) If you’re Blue, please understand: you can’t win.

Friends (and friends we must remain), if you’re Blue, you’re picking a fight you cannot win with a foe you cannot beat because you think we either cannot or will not fight, and that’s the most dangerous decision you can possibly make. The graveyards are full of people who made similar decisions. War is often an unintentional or unforeseen consequence; even if we don’t want to fight, we might. Likewise, once a war starts, your enemy’s propensity to fight can change. So, sure, maybe we’re cowards, but cowards can surprise you. Once Biden “accidentally” blows up a school bus, all those former cowards may be crying out for blood. Remember New Jersey was loyal to the King until a few Hessians raped a few Jersey girls &, now, New Jersey is part of the US, not the UK. Things happen, so don’t bet on your assessment of our propensities - even if you’re right, such things change. Quickly & unexpectedly.

Do I think we’re on the edge of war? Hard to say, but I do know that socialists always reach a crossroads: either they kill or they quit. We’re near that junction. It’s time for all of us to take a moment and collect our thoughts. Sure, lots of strange things happen in war, but - basically - wars are about logistics, and the logistics tell us that Reds would win & win fairly easy. I sincerely doubt that the US can afford even a few weeks of fighting (given the effects on the stock market & bonds & given how dependent Blue America is on that kind of wealth). Hate to break it to you, but Blue America’s bankrupt if the war starts, and that’ll end the war right there (if you can’t pay the troops, you have no Army.)